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31/10/2003 edition

How Important Is The Barrier Draw?

Here is what Brisbane racecaller Alan Thomas said after the completion of the second race at Doomben, a 1010 metres 2YO Open Handicap with nine runners. Swift Sequalo from barrier two won the race and ran down Small Planet which started from barrier eight:

"Number eight's the winner, Swift Sequalo, ridden by Nathan Day. See, one had the inside alley, one had the outside alley. One got the run on the fence behind the speed and the other one had to do too much work to get there and in the end that was the difference."

However it's also worth noting what Alan Thomas said at the beginning of the race:

"Small Planet didn't jump all that well. He's come out towards second last and he's skooting quickly on the outside with Roar Prospect going through on the inside to be the leader. Small Planet's outside him."

That tells us the real reason why Small Planet didn't win. He badly missed the jump. It's really got nothing to do with barrier eight compared to the winner's barrier two. If Small Planet had jumped well from barrier eight and Swift Sequalo had missed the start from barrier two results would have been reversed.

If you like a horse it pays to ignore the barrier draw. At times there is far too much significance placed on the barrier draw. If it has a wide barrier you'll probably get better odds to more than compansate for the barrier.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Lonhro - Cox Plate betting, trifecta tips
Re-educating the punter - getting the "ststistical edge"
How important is the barrier draw?
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/10/2003
Punt to Win index

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