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31/10/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, October 25.

Moonee Valley: Track Good
R5 $150,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Spinning Hill
Result: second
Winning/losing margin: 1.5 lengths
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctation: $2.30
Jockey: Patrick Payne
Trainer: Guy Walter
Winner: Our Egyptian Raine
Winning/losing margin: 1.5 lengths
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctation: $13.00
Tote dividends' range: $16.00 - $17.30
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Grahame Begg

This edition of Punt to Win:
Lonhro - Cox Plate betting, trifecta tips
Re-educating the punter - getting the "ststistical edge"
How important is the barrier draw?
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/10/2003
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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