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11/7/2015 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

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Here are the results from Randwick for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 20th. June, 2015.

Randwick: Track Heavy.

R1 $85,000 2YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Backstab
Result: 1st
Starting price: 2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Gerald Ryan

R2 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: God's In Him
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.05
Top fluctuation: $2.05
Tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

R3 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 2600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Mister Impatience
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Brodie Loy
Trainer: Michael Moroney
Winner: Soviet Courage
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.20
Tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller

R6 $85,000 3YO & UP. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Wouldn't It Be Nice
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Thomas Huet
Trainer: Paul Perry
Winner: Timeless Prince
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
Tote dividend: $7.20
Jockey: Winona Costin
Trainer: Tony Newing

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This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing Betting Tips
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The Professional Punter's horse racing news
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Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 20/6/2015
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Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 4/7/2015 & 27/6/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 20/6/2015
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 20/6/2015

Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

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It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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