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3/4/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 13th. March, 2010. On this day the $1,000,000 Weight for Age Australian Cup and the $750,000 3YO. Group 1 Australian Guineas were held at Flemington horse racing track.

Flemington: Track Dead
Australian Cup Day

R1 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Tricky Tricky
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Leon Corstens
Winner: Master Harry
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.30
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody


Randwick: Track Good
Randwick Guineas Day

R1 $125,000 Randwick City Stakes. 3YO & up. Group 3. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Spinney
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: The Embassy
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Chris Waller

R2 $125,000 Skyline Stakes. 2YO. Colts & geldings. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Beneteau
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $1.50
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Paul Messara
Winner: Hinchinbrook
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gerald Ryan


Oakbank: Track Dead

R1 $32,000 2YO. 0MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sir Swift
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Paul Seater
Winner: Belfast Boy
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Michael Hoppo
Trainer: Gordon Richards

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tips on making money betting trifectas
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Jockeys + Odds + Form horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Australian Cup Day - 13/3/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/3/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 13/3/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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