Punt to Win
Winning Form is Good Form
Should you ignore that very bad run?
On Derby Day 2000, at Flemington racetrack, Sky Heights was sent out as the $3.50 favourite in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes run over 2000 metres. One week earlier in the W.S.Cox Plate at Moonee Valley racetrack over 2040 metres Sky Heights started second favourite at $5.00 and finished a dismal 26 lengths behind champion mare Sunline. Don't ever forget the pre-race publicity. That was the race where Sky Heights was really going to apply the pressure to Sunline, really test her out and make sure she didn't have a cosy run in the lead. Well, Sky Heights missed the start and never got into the race, putting in an absolutely appalling run.
On Derby Day Sky Heights finished twelfth in the field of 16, beaten by eight lengths. At least that was an 18 lengths improvement!"
In our opinion "bad runs" can be ignored some times, when they are not as bad as appear at first sight. For example:
1. A horse may be well beaten because it didn't it get a clear run in the straight, or it was shuffled back right through the field.
2. A horse may be well beaten because it raced on a Heavy track and didn't handle the conditions.
3. A horse may have been racing right out of its class and then is dropped right back to its proper class. It could have been racing at Weight for Age or in Group Handicaps or Listed Handicaps and then entered in an Open Handicap or even a restricted benchmark race. That is a ploy used by some trainers to get good odds about the horse when it is racing in its right class because of its previous "poor form."
This edition of Punt to Win:
2009 Melbourne Cup Day
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