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13/3/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the Futurity Stakes Day horse racing meeting held at Caulfield on Saturday, 27th. February, 2010.

Caulfield
Track: R1-2 Dead, R3-9 Good
Rail: Out 3 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.18

R1 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Launay
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R2 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Returntosender
Days since last start: 273
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 10-19
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $250,000 The Inglis Premier. 2YO. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Not A Pretender
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 3-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: John P. Thompson

R4 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Crystal Lily
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 6-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Brett Prebble
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra

R5 $100,000 Open. Quality Handicap. Listed.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Sadalbari
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Michael Kent

R6 $100,000 Open. Handicap. Listed.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Velocitea
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price

R7 $500,000 Group 1. Weight for Age.
Futurity Stakes.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Typhoon Tracy
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R8 $180,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Take The Rap
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R9 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Berringama
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Brian Cox

Comments:
Punters backing favourites had a good winning day, with six favourites winning from the nine races. Three of the winning favourites won their previous race in their current campaign while another two were placed. Only in R4 did the favourite, Crystal Lily win after missing a place at its previous run in its campaign. In R2 punters sent out Returntosender as the favourite after a long spell of 273 days. While close, they did not collect. No trainer or jockey was involved with two or more winning favourites.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - winning form is good form
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Number One Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day - 6/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day - 27/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes day - 20/2/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/2/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/2/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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