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13/3/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the $1,000,000 Group 1 Newmarket Handicap Day at Flemington horse racing track held on Saturday, 6th. March, 2010. A heavy storm after R6 led to the postponement of the rest of the meeting. It was decided that the $1,000,000 Group 1 Australian Cup and $750,000 3YO Group 1 Australia Guineas would be held at Flemington the following Saturday.

Flemington
Track: Dead.
Rail: True position.
Penetrometer: 4.95

R1 $150,000 Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes.
2YO. Fillies. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Shaaheq
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $125,000 3YO. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Rarefied
Days since last start: 182
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R3 $300,000 VRC Sires' Produce Stakes.
2YO. Group 2. Set weights.

Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Willow Creek
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-15
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R4 $125,000 Open. Listed Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Huxssen
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: Rodney Douglas

R5 $400,000 Kewney Stakes.
3YO. Fillies. Group 2. Set weights.

Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Trim
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R6 $1,000,000 Group 1 Newmarket Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 19
Favourite: All Silent
Days since last start: 83
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 8-14
Result this start: 11th.

Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Grahame Begg

R7 $750,000 Australian Guineas.
3YO. Group 1. Set weights.

Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Postponed

R8 $1,000,000 Australian Cup. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 16
Postponed

Comments:
It was losing meeting for favourites punters with only an odds on winner in the first race of the day. In R2 Rarefied resumed as favourite after a long spell of 182 days and did not win. While in the main race held on the day, All Silent, resuming from a spell of 83 days, was sent out as the favourite and finished well down the track. In R3 Willow Creek was unplaced at its previous start. Even though it was a close fourth in the 2YO Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes, Willow Creek could not improve enough to win. as the $2.70 favourite this week. The jockey and trainer combination of Kerrin McEvoy and Peter Snowden saddled up two losing favourites - Rarefied $3.40 in R2 and Trim $4.00 in R5.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - winning form is good form
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Number One Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day - 6/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day - 27/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes day - 20/2/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/2/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/2/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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