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13/3/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the $1,000,000 2YO. Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes Day horse racing horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 20th. February, 2010 at the Caulfield. horse racing track. At this race meeting the $400,000 Group 1 Oakleigh Plate was also held.

Caulfield
Track: Good.
Rail: True Position.
Penetrometer: 5.33

R1 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Seeking Attention
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 7-11
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Anthony Cummings

R2 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Going Spending
Days since last start: 25
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Kel Chapman

R3 $125,000 Carlyon Cup.
4YO and upward. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Rightfully Yours
Days since last start: 105
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 8-15
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R4 $180,000 Angus Armanasco Stakes.
3YO. Fillies. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Set For Fame
Days since last start: 25
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R5 $180,000 D'Urban Stakes.
3YO.
Group 2. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Denman
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.26
Top fluctuation: $1.26
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R6 $200,000 St. George Stakes.
Group 2.
Weight for Age.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Heart Of Dreams
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R7 $1,000,000 Blue Diamond Stakes.
2YO. Group 1. Set weights.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Beneteau
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Daniel Ganderton
Trainer: Paul Messara

R8 $400,000 Oakleigh Plate.
Group 1. Handicap.

Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Lucky Secret
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R9 $125,000 Mannerism Stakes.
Mares. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Tootsie
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Michael Moroney

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a winning meeting with Tootsie $5.00, Rightfully Yours $2.70, Set For Fame $2.50 and Denman $1.26 all winning. Denman and Set For Fame were last start winners while Tootsie finished second at its previous start. Righfully Yours was first up after a spell of 105 days. So punters who took the short odds were successful on this occasion. In R1 Seeking Attention, which ran seventh at its previous start ran eight as a $2.60 favourite.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - winning form is good form
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Number One Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day - 6/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day - 27/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes day - 20/2/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/2/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/2/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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