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Punt to Win
Horse Racing Form Analysis
Identifying false favourites
Currently each week in Win betting - horse racing favourites we are providing some horse racing form statistics for all the favourites at Melbourne's main Saturday horse racing meetings, including a brief summary of the information. The aim is to help punters identify which horses should be favourites and which horses are false favourites. Here is something we wrote on the issue some years ago. It is just as relevent today.
Expelled was sent out a short priced $2.80 favourite in a Fillies and Mares Class 6 over 1200 metres at Eagle Farm. Expelled was a very poor bet at the odds and clearly a false favourite. Consider these points:
1. Expelled is a backmarker. As a general rule, taking $2.80 about backmarkers is asking for trouble. In a field of 11 it looked very skinny odds.
2. Expelled also had barrier 10, with the possibility of not only being back in the field, but trapped wide.
3. Following two runs in at 1200 metres and 1350 metres, Expelled was dropping back to 1200 metres. Backing a horse at short odds dropping back in distance like that is generally asking for trouble.
4. Expelled had won dropping back in distance before. On November 10 last year she won over 1350 metres and then won over 1200 metres at her next start, on December 8. That is a break of four weeks, a genuine freshen up.
5. On June 29 this year Expelled finished second over 1350 metres, hitting the line hard after settling well back in the field. The drop back in distance on Saturday, July 13, was only two weeks after that run. That is difficult enough for an on pace/leader to manage. For a backmarker - just about forget it.
As the race panned out, Expelled settled well back last in the field, and was about 10 lengths off the pace at the home turn. The filly made up some ground in the straight, but still finished a well beaten eighth.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2009 Melbourne Cup Day
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