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30/1/2010 edition

Beware Unraced Horses

When a horse having its first race start is in a field it makes betting very tricky.

1. It is very difficult to assess what winning chances that horse has. (We have regularly shown on this site that long term, following the money with these horses is useless.)

2. It makes knowing what is a value price for the horses with race form that much more difficult.

Last Saturday at Cheltenham the first race was a 3YO Open over 1300 metres. There were only four horses in the field. Barossa Broadway started as $2.00 favourite. Luskin's Proud was also short at $2.20. Both these horses were beaten by over three lengths. The winner was the unraced John Hawkes' trained gelding, Dinmont.

Dinmont started at $10.00. You couldn't back him on his trial form either. At his last public trial at Cranbourne on August 27 he finished ninth. But if you know your trainers it was just possible you might have had a small bet on him. The favourites were clearly no value.

1. Hawkes' trained horses generally run well first up.

2. Trial form is irrelevant.

3. Support in the betting ring also means nothing. Many Hawkes' trained horses will ease significantly and then romp in.

Just as horses are creatures of habit, so are most trainers. If you spend time thoroughly following and recording what trainers are doing with individual horses you should see clear, regular patterns emerge. This will help you immensely with your betting. You will be able to dismiss horses which are well supported favourites. You will also find horses at generous odds that have excellent winning chances.

Based on Punt to Win, 4th. January, 2002

This edition of Punt to Win:
Unraced horses often mean bad betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Pre Post Market horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 23/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 16/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 9/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/1/2010
Punt to Win index


2009 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Strawberry Field 21.00 32.60 $116
Right Fong 13.70 17.00 $33
Majestic Music 9.80 13.00 $32
Common Interest 9.20 12.00 $28
She's Got Gears 10.00 12.60 $26
Flying Tessie 11.00 13.40 $24
Shocking 9.80 11.00 $12


 

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