Punt to Win
Beware Unraced Horses
When a horse having its first race start is in a field it makes betting very tricky.
1. It is very difficult to assess what winning chances that horse has. (We have regularly shown on this site that long term, following the money with these horses is useless.)
Last Saturday at Cheltenham the first race was a 3YO Open over 1300 metres. There were only four horses in the field. Barossa Broadway started as $2.00 favourite. Luskin's Proud was also short at $2.20. Both these horses were beaten by over three lengths. The winner was the unraced John Hawkes' trained gelding, Dinmont.
Dinmont started at $10.00. You couldn't back him on his trial form either. At his last public trial at Cranbourne on August 27 he finished ninth. But if you know your trainers it was just possible you might have had a small bet on him. The favourites were clearly no value.
1. Hawkes' trained horses generally run well first up.
3. Support in the betting ring also means nothing. Many Hawkes' trained horses will ease significantly and then romp in.
Just as horses are creatures of habit, so are most trainers. If you spend time thoroughly following and recording what trainers are doing with individual horses you should see clear, regular patterns emerge. This will help you immensely with your betting. You will be able to dismiss horses which are well supported favourites. You will also find horses at generous odds that have excellent winning chances.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2009 Melbourne Cup Day
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