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30/1/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 16th. January, 2010.

Rosehill: Track Dead

R3 $70,000 3YO. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Exceed With Me
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Oopsy Doopsy
Starting price: $31.00
Top fluctuation: $31.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $27.60
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Gregory Mcfarlane


Flemington: Track Good

R1 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Royal Commands
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra
Winner: Absolute Faith
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.60
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: John McArdle


Morphettville: Track Good

R2 $26,500 3YO. 2MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Chief Of Staff
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Mark Minervini

R3 $26,500 Rating 81. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Thumb Prints
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Stephen Brown
Winner: Taos Pleasure
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.30
Jockey: Tillie Neve
Trainer: John Hickmott

R4 $26,500 Rating 86. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: In The Chair
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Dom Tourneur
Trainer: Jeremy Kenny
Winner: Sir Sienna
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Lois Kettle

R5 $26,500 3YO Fillies. 1MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Space Star
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Peter Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Unraced horses often mean bad betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Pre Post Market horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 23/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 16/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 9/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/1/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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