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30/1/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 9th. January, 2010.

Randwick: Track Good

R1 $70,000 3YO & up. Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Informality
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Lorne Dancer
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Kody Nestor
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Syndrome
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Michael Moroney

R3 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Netra
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Jarrod McLean
Winner: Valentine Miss
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R4 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Its Prince
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Nathan Rose
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

R7 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Rolling Stock
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Clinton McDonald


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $26,500 3YO. 2MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Hellacious
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: Mark Minervini
Winner: Lipsting
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.70
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Steve Adams

R2 $26,500 3YO & up. 2MWLY. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Noble Connection
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $1.85
Jockey: Lauren Stojakovic
Trainer: Daniel Clarken
Winner: Nitonic
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.90
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Colette Cooper

R3 $41,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Lapel
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.90
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Lucid Reflection
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.60
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Dick Leech

R4 $26,500 3YO & up. 2MWLY. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Periduki
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Paul Denton
Trainer: Lisa Lefoe

This edition of Punt to Win:
Unraced horses often mean bad betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Pre Post Market horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 23/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 16/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 9/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/1/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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