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30/1/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the Caulfield horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 9th. January, 2010 at the Caulfield horse racing track.

Caulfield
Track: Good.
Rail: Out 7 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.28

R1 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Syndrome
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 9-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Michael Moroney

R2 $70,000 2YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Zachary
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 3-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R3 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Netra
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Jarrod McLean

R4 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Its Prince
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Nathan Rose
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

R5 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Our Baby Bonus
Days since last start: 30
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price

R6 $100,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Beltrois
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Luke Currie
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

R7 $70,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Rolling Stock
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Clinton McDonald

R8 $70,000 Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Tollemache
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1250
Result last start: 4-14
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Peter Snowden

Comments:
A huge winning day for favourites' punters with six winners from the eight races. The bookies left the meeting with no money in their bags. The favourite in R1, Syndrome, won after running ninth at its previous start. But in R8 Tollemache, which was also unplaced at its previous start, did not win. Jockey Mark Zahra combined with trainer Michael Moroney to win on Syndrome. Mark Zahra also had two rides on favourites for trainer Peter Snowden, winning on Zachary in R2 but finishing third on Tollemache in R8.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Unraced horses often mean bad betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Pre Post Market horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 23/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 16/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 9/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/1/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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