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30/1/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 23rd. January, 2010.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Killian
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden


Sandown Lakeside: Track Good

R1 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Tan Tat Tess
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Fast Talker
Starting price: $8.50
Top fluctuation: $8.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.40
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Lee Freedman


Eagle Farm: Track Good

R6 $100,000 Fillies & Mares. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Chakvetadze
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $2.15
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Michael Nolan
Winner: Plain Magic
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Kelly Schweida


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $31,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lipsting
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Steve Adams
Winner: Silent March
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Ron Stokes

R3 $31,000 3YO. 2MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Secret Encounter
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Alpha Gold
Starting price: $31.00
Top fluctuation: $31.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $24.30
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Heather Lehmann

R4 $41,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Changing Eyes
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: Mark Minervini
Winner: Taos Pleasure
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.10
Jockey: Tillie Neve
Trainer: John Hickmott

This edition of Punt to Win:
Unraced horses often mean bad betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Pre Post Market horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 23/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 16/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 9/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/1/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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