Punt to Win

Pro-Punter
Horse racing forums
Swap tips and discuss betting systems and software
Win at racing

 

 

30/1/2010 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Sandown Lakeside - 23/1/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Fifth Avenue Lady
59kg.
8
1300
$8.00
9/9
Eagle Farm - 23/1/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Alverta
60.5kg.
6
1200
$3.80
3/7
Flemington - 16/1/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Absolute Faith
59kg.
5
1200
$8.00
1/6
Grand Destiny
59kg.
2
2520
$5.50
2/10
Time Matters
59kg.
5
1410
$4.20fav.
2/14
Caulfield - 9/1/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sir Skalahad
59kg.
4
2000
$7.00
3/5
Moonee Valley - 2/1/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Testalux
59kg.
7
2040
$6.00
8/8
Gold Coast - 2/1/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Burdekin Blues
61kg.
2
900
$1.60fav.
1/11
Morphettville - 2/1/2010
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Tosstestaroan
60kg.
3
1600
$6.50
4/10
Randwick - 26/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lorne Dancer
64kg.
2
1400
$6.50
2/9
Caulfield - 26/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Here De Angels
59kg.
11
1200
$2.60fav.
1/16
Doomben - 26/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Rasmussen
60kg.
9
1200
$2.80fav.
3/11
Randwick - 19/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bank Robber
61kg.
10
1200
$2.60fav.
5/15
Flemington - 19/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Winter King
59kg.
3
1000
$7.50
3/5
Morphettville - 19/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ooleo
59.5kg.
10
1100
$4.60fav.
1/15
Flemington - 12/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Stormhill
59kg.
9
2000
$9.50
4/12
Mind Your Head
59kg.
5
1200
$9.00
7/11
Eagle Farm - 12/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Rasmussen
59kg.
11
1200
$3.10fav..
1/14
Secrets Untold
59kg.
2
1600
$4.20
3/12
Alverta
59kg.
5
1300
$5.50
1/15
Rosehill - 5/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
News Alert
60kg.
4
1100
$4.60
4/8
Caulfield - 5/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Tango's Choice
59kg.
3
1200
$5.50
5/10
Doomben - 5/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
The Jackal
59.5kg.
4
1200
$7.00
7/15
Morphettville - 5/12/2009
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Moggaden
59.5kg.
8
1950
$3.00fav.
8/9
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Unraced horses often mean bad betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Pre Post Market horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 23/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 16/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 9/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/1/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

Home | Contact us | Horse racing forum | Advertise

 
  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.