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20/2/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 30th. January, 2010. On this day the $500,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Lightning Stakes was held at Flemington.

Randwick: Track Good

R2 $70,000 3YO & up. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 5
Equal Favourite: Altered Boy
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller
Equal Favourite: Mr Unforgettable
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Kevin Moses
Winner: Gergis Boy
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.60
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R3 $70,000 3YO. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: The Mikado
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Tim Martin

R4 $70,000 3YO & up. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Buccaneers Prize
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $2.35
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: David Payne
Winner: Sandberg
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Kathy O'Hara
Trainer: Guy Walter

R5 $70,000 3YO & up. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Bejewelled
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Winner: Pins On Parade
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Kris Lees


Doomben: Track Good

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Ollie Vollie
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: Sue Grills


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $26,500 Rating 91. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Adoptmetwo
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Dennis O'Leary
Winner: Bella's Bro
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas

R3 $26,500 Rating 86. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Allstar
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Paul Seater
Winner: Rowdy Rocker
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $11.80
Jockey: Jeffrey Maund
Trainer: Ron Vile

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - identifying false favourites
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Quick Pick Quinella horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: William Reid Stakes Day - 13/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: C. F. Orr Stakes Day - 6/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Lightning Stakes day - 30/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 30/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 30/1/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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