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20/2/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 6th. February, 2010. On this day the $400,000 Group 1 Weight for Age C. F. Orr Stakes was held at Caulfield.

Caulfield: Track Good

R3 $100,000 3YO. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Denman
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden


Rosehill: Track Heavy

R1 $70,000 3YO and up. Fillies & Mares. Rating 84. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Brasileira
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Estancia Rios
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.10
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: Kevin Moses

R4 $70,000 3YO and up. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Mossurmi
Result:3rd.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: Marc Conners
Winner: Tagus
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Wayne Wilkes

R6 $200,000 Expressway Stakes.
3YO and up. Group 2. Weight for Age.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: McClintock
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Mark de Montfort
Winner: Rangirangdoo
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Chris Waller


Doomben: Track Good

R6 $100,000 Fillies & Mares. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Chakvetadze
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: Michael Nolan
Winner: Plain Magic
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Kelly Schweida


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $32,000 3YO. 2MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1522 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Chartreux
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Value As
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Dennis O'Leary

R2 $40,000 3YO. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: I'm Discreet
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Chief Of Staff
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.60
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Mark Minervini

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - identifying false favourites
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Quick Pick Quinella horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: William Reid Stakes Day - 13/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: C. F. Orr Stakes Day - 6/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Lightning Stakes day - 30/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 30/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 30/1/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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