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20/2/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the $500,000 Group 1 Lightning Stakes Day horse racing horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 30th. January, 2010 at the Flemington horse racing track.

Flemington
Track: Good.
Rail: True Position.
Penetrometer: 4.93

R1 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Willow Creek
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Captain Coltish
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.05
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $90,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Macedonian
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 3000
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R4 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 12
Equal Favourite: True Tales
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1410
Result last start: 5-14
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Tony Vasil
Equal Favourite: Sadalbari
Days since last start: 29
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Michael Kent

R5 $150,000 Colin Hayes Stakes.
3YO. Colts and Geldings.
Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Extra Zero
Days since last start: 91
Distance last start: 2500
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: David Hayes

R6 $500,000 Lightning Stakes.
Group 1.
Weight for Age.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Starspangledbanner
Days since last start: 112
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Leon Corstens

R7 $150,000 The Vanity.
3YO Fillies. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Tallow
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Anthony Cummings

R8 $75,000 3YO & up. Fillies & Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Golden Honey
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 3-15
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Andrew J. Payne

Comments:
Punters got off to a poor start with the trainer/jockey combination of Peter G. Moody and Luke Nolen having beaten favourites in the first three races. In R4 equal favourite True Tales, which was unplaced at its previous start, did not win while the other equal favourite Sadalbari dropped back from 2000 metres to 1600 metres, always a tough task, plus had 29 days between races. It was also unplaced. In R6 the short priced favourite, Starspangledbanner, resumed after a spell of 112 days. It too was unplaced.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - identifying false favourites
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Quick Pick Quinella horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: William Reid Stakes Day - 13/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: C. F. Orr Stakes Day - 6/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Lightning Stakes day - 30/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 30/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 30/1/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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