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20/2/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the Group 1 William Reid Stakes Day at Moonee Valley horse racing track held on Saturday, 13th. February, 2010.

Moonee Valley
Track: Dead.
Rail: True position.
Penetrometer: 4.79

R1 $70,000 2YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Tizona
Days since last start: First race start
Distance last start: ---
Result last start: ---
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R2 $70,000 3YO. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Tollesprit
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1sr.
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Shane Fliedner

R3 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Aloha
Days since last start: 18
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price

R4 $70,000 3YO and up. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Marchelle Belle
Days since last start: 98
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 7-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R5 $70,000 4YO and up. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: True Tales
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-12
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R6 $200,000 Alister Clark Stakes.
3YO. Colts & Geldings. Group 2. Set weights.

Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Linton
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Robert Hickmott

R7 $500,000 William Reid Stakes. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Nicconi
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: David Hayes

R8 $200,000 Sunline Stakes. Mares. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Zarita
Days since last start: 18
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $1.95
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Pat Hyland

R9 $70,000 Rating 82. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Ishant
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 12th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

Comments:
It was a near break even meeting for favourites punters with three winners at bookmaker top fluctuation odds of $4.00, $2.30 and $1.95. Two of the winning favourites won their previous race, the other placed. Damien Oliver was the jockey on three losing favourites, in R3, R4 and R7. In R1 Tizona, having its first race start, finished sixth while in R4 Marchelle Belle, resuming after a spell of 98 days, finished second.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - identifying false favourites
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Quick Pick Quinella horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: William Reid Stakes Day - 13/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: C. F. Orr Stakes Day - 6/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Lightning Stakes day - 30/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 30/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 30/1/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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