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20/2/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the C. F. Orr Stakes Day horse racing meeting held at Caulfield on Saturday, 6th. February, 2010.

Caulfield
Track: Good
Rail: True Position
Penetrometer: 5.24

R1 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Old Jock
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price

R2 $75,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Starry Eyed
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Barry Barnes

R3 $100,000 3YO. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Denman
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R4 $125,000 2YO. Fillies. Group 3. Set weights.
Blue Diamond Prelude.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Sweet Cheeks
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 6-13
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: John McArdle

R5 $125,000 2YO. Colts & Geldings. Group 3. Set weights.
Blue Diamond Prelude.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Secession
Days since last start: 84
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R6 $125,000 Group 3. Rubiton Stakes.
Open. Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Lucky Secret
Days since last start: 84
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R7 $400,000 Group 1. Orr Stakes.
Weight for Age.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Typhoon Tracy
Days since last start: 98
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.45
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R8 $125,000 Mares. Group 3. Race Club Stakes.
Set weights and penalties.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Velocitea
Days since last start: 112
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 13-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price

R9 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: La Rocket
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-5
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Dale Sutton

Comments:
Punters backing favourites were saved from a very tough day when Velocitea won R8 starting at $5.00. It was first up after a spell of 112 days. As we've seen, horses resuming as favourites after more than 100 days do not have a great record of success. In R3 and R7 the two favourites sent out at long odds on, Denman and Typhoon Tracy, both won. Typhoon Tracy was first up after 98 days. However in R5 Secession resumed after 84 days and was unplaced. In R4 Sweet Cheeks finished sixth at its previous start. It was again unplaced. In the final race of the meeting, La Rocket, which finished a well beaten third in a field of just five at its previous start finished third again, but this time by only a half length.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - identifying false favourites
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Quick Pick Quinella horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: William Reid Stakes Day - 13/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: C. F. Orr Stakes Day - 6/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Lightning Stakes day - 30/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 30/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 30/1/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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