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13/3/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 6th. March, 2010. On this day the $1,000,000 Group 1 Newmarket Handicap was held at Flemington horse racing track.

Flemington: Track Dead

R1 $150,000 2YO. Fillies. Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Shaaheq
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: David Hayes


Warwick Farm: Track Slow

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 90. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Strike One
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Chris Waller

R3 $150,000 3YO. Fillies. Surround Stakes. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: More Joyous
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.22
Top fluctuation: $1.22
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.10
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R4 $125,000 2YO. Fillies. Kindergarten Stakes. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Solar Charged
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: John O'Shea


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $40,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Show Bling
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Jon O'Connor
Winner: Zhen Zhen
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Big Slick
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Dennis O'Leary
Winner: Orchestra Stalls
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Chris Oxlade

R3 $32,000 Rating 86. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Honourable Kind
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell
Winner: Hawks Bay
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Mark Pegus
Trainer: Neil Dyer

R4 $40,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Stirling Grove
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R5 $25,000 Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Balzoni
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: David Baylis
Winner: The Fugitive
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Libby Hopwood
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - winning form is good form
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Number One Winners horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Newmarket Handicap Day - 6/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Futurity Stakes Day - 27/2/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blue Diamond Stakes day - 20/2/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 6/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/2/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/2/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/2/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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