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3/4/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held at Caulfield on Saturday, 20th. March, 2010.

Caulfield
Track: R1-3 Dead, R4-8 Good.
Rail: Out 6 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.17

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Unctuous
Days since last start: 20
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R2 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Chateau D'Yquem
Days since last start: 57
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Second King
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1410
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brent Evans
Trainer: Michael Kent

R4 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: La Bella Roo
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-5
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ben Knobel
Trainer: Peter Boynton

R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Instructor
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 4-6
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Robert Hickmott

R6 $100,000 Open. Handicap. Listed.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Time Matters
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Sebastian Murphy
Trainer: Darren Weir

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Definitely Ready
Days since last start: 147
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 4-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R8 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: I'm A Hussy
Days since last start: 12
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: David & Scott Brunton

Comments:
Punters backing favourites had a solid losing day, with only two favourites winning from the eight races. Punters took serious risks backing these two winning favourites as well, with Chateau D'Yquem in R2 dropping back in distance from 1600 metres to 1400 metres after a freshen up of 57 days. While in R7 Definitely Ready was sent out at the very short odds of just $1.55 after a long spell of 147 days. In R5 Instructor dropped back in distance from 1700 metres to 1600 metres after finishing a well beaten fourth of six at its previous start 22 days earlier. It finished a well beaten fourth again.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tips on making money betting trifectas
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Jockeys + Odds + Form horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Australian Cup Day - 13/3/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/3/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 13/3/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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