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3/4/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the $1,000,000 Australian Cup Day horse racing horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 13th. March, 2010 at the Flemington horse racing track. At this race meeting the $750,000 3YO Group 1 Australian Guineas was also held.

Flemington
Track: R1-2 Dead, R3-10 Good.
Rail: True Position.
Penetrometer: 4.85

R1 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Tricky Tricky
Days since last start: 42
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Leon Corstens

R2 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Precedence
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Bart Cummings

R3 $150,000 Matron Stakes.
3YO and up. Fillies & Mares. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Response
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.88
Top fluctuation: $2.14
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Marveen was a late scratching at the barrier in Response's race which resulted in a 33 cents in the dollar deduction to the face value of wagers made with the bookmakers. As a result top fluctuation has been reduced from $3.20 and starting price reduced from $2.80. The tote automatically removes all wagers on the scratched horse from the pool and then recalculates odds.

R4 $100,000 Quality. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: The Tiger
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 2500
Result last start: 4-12
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Colin & Cindy Alderson

R5 $150,000 Victoria Plate.
3YO and up. Fillies & Mares. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Lady Lynette
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R6 $300,000 Blamey Stakes.
3YO and up. Group 2. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Dao Dao
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-6
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

R7 $750,000 Australian Guineas.
3YO. Group 1. Set weights.

Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Denman
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R8 $1,000,000 Australian Cup.
Group 1. Weight for Age.

Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Heart Of Dreams
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price

R9 $125,000 Listed. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Common Interest
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 6-9
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R10 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Stillme
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Sheila Arnold

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a near break even meeting with Stillme $4.00, Precedence $2.50 and Response $2.14 all winning. Precedence was a last start winner while Stillme and Response both finished second at their previous start. In R1 Tricky Tricky finished sixth after a freshen up of 42 days. In R4 The Tiger was unplaced after being unplaced at its previous start as was Common Interest in R9.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tips on making money betting trifectas
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Jockeys + Odds + Form horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Australian Cup Day - 13/3/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/3/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 13/3/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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