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3/4/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the Caulfield horse racing track held on Saturday, 27th. March, 2010.

Caulfield
Track: R1-3 Dead, R4-8 Good.
Rail: Out 9 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.15

R1 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Swooper
Days since last start: 19
Distance last start: 2008
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jarrod Fry
Trainer: Darryl Dodson

R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Curtana
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: About Ready
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price

R4 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Red Flair
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Jordan Mallyon
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra

R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Zedi Knight
Days since last start: 8
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-9
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Brendan McCarthy

R6 $90,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Tenzing
Days since last start: 16
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 4th.

Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: David Bourne

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Equal Favourite: Above Average
Days since last start: 161
Distance last start: 3200
Result last start: 3-8
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Equal Favourite: Georgia's Boy
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-14
Result this start: 5th.

Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brent Stanley
Trainer: Gary Sherer

R8 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Luminous Harmony
Days since last start: 19
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-13
Result this start: 3rd.

Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price

Comments:
It was a winning meeting for favourites punters with an outlay of nine units and a return of 10.9 units at top fluctuation odds on the three winning favourites. Two of the winning favourites finished second at their previous start, 14 days earlier. However in R7 the winning equal favourite, Above Average, was first up over 1600 metres from a long spell of 161 days. In R8 the favourite, Luminous Harmony, finished third after being unplaced at its previous start. The jockey and trainer combination of Jason Maskiell and Mick Price saddled up two losing favourites - About Ready $1.75 in R3 and Luminous Harmony $2.45 in R8. To top it off, Jason Maskiell in R5 rode the $3.30 Brendan McCarthy trained losing favourite, Zedi Knight. With three losing favourites from three rides you could say that Jason Maskiell wasn't favourite punters most popular jockey after Saturday.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tips on making money betting trifectas
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Jockeys + Odds + Form horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 27/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/3/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Australian Cup Day - 13/3/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 27/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/3/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/3/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 13/3/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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