4/4/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 28th. March, 2009.

Caulfield
Track: R1-5 Dead, R6-9 Good
Rail: Out 10 metres
Penetrometer: 5.19

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: I'm A Smarty Pants
Days since last start: 133
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 3-14
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R2 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Miss Maren
Days since last start: 19
Distance last start: 2005
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.65
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Mick Price

R3 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Raffaello
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R4 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Joyeuse
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 10-16
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton

R5 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Bubble Below
Days since last start: 42
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 4-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: Michael Kent

R6 $100,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Falaise
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 4-11
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Let Loushe
Days since last start: 112
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 8-14
Result this start: 10th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R8 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Markus Maximus
Days since last start: 19
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Peter G Moody

Comments:
The favourites in R4, R5 and R6 were all unplaced at their previous start in their current camapaign. They all failed again to run a place. It should also be noted that in R5 Bubble Below was dropping back in distance from 1500 metres to 1200 metres after a break of 42 days. In R1 the favourite, I'm A Smarty Pants, resumed from a spell of 133 days and finished third. Glen Boss was the jockey of three of the beaten favourites.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing software betting programs
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 28/3/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/3/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blamey Stakes Day - 14/3/2009
The Tipster Pre Post Odds horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Rosehill Guineas Day - 28/3/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/3/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: Randwick Guineas Day - 14/3/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/3/2009
Punt to Win index

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