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4/4/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results from the meeting held at Flemington horse racing track on Saturday, 14th. March, 2009.

Flemington
Blamey Stakes Day
Track: Dead
Rail: Out 3 metres.
Penetrometer: 4.68

R1 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Common Interest
Days since last start: 20
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R2 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Bolle
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Barbara Marshman

R3 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Tango's Choice
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price

R4 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Iamzeus
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 11-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R5 $100,000 Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Renewable
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 2500
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: John Sadler

R6 $200,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Group 3.
Set weights with penalties.

Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Fifth Avenue Lady
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R7 $300,000 3YO and upward. Group 2. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Conquering
Days since last start: 20
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 10th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Charlie Goggin

R8 $125,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Wilander
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 7-18
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R9 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Falaise
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Peter Snowden

Comments:
What's interesting is that in R4 and R8, two of the five winning favourites were well out of the money in their previous start. In R4 Iamzeus dropped well down in class from an Open Group 2 race to a 3YO Open. Similarly in R8 Wilander dropped down in class from the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate to just a Listed Handicap. Leading jockey Damien Oliver was on four of the favourites, winning on two of them.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing software betting programs
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 28/3/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/3/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blamey Stakes Day - 14/3/2009
The Tipster Pre Post Odds horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Rosehill Guineas Day - 28/3/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/3/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: Randwick Guineas Day - 14/3/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/3/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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