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4/4/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 21st. March, 2009.

Caulfield
Track: Good
Rail: Out 7 metres
Penetrometer: 5.22

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Senor Zorro
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Currie
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $70,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Buffett
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R3 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Dance On Air
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 5-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton

R4 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Ortensia
Days since last start: 182
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Tony Noonan

R5 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Larry's Never Late
Days since last start: 24
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Logan McGill
Trainer: Rodney Douglas

R6 $70,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Midnight Mustang
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Luke Oliver

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Hissing Sid
Days since last start: 11
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Wayne Hokai
Trainer: Bill & Symon Wilde

R8 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Lady Lynette
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

Comments:
Tony Noonan pulled off an excellent training feat in R4 with Ortensia winning over the 1000 metres after a spell of 182 days. In R2 Buffett was sent out a short priced favourite, but was not able to win after jumping in distance from 1400 metres to 2000 metres. In R3 despite being unplaced at its previous start, Dance On Air won. The other two winning favourites both were placed at their previous starts.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing software betting programs
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 28/3/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/3/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: Blamey Stakes Day - 14/3/2009
The Tipster Pre Post Odds horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Rosehill Guineas Day - 28/3/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/3/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: Randwick Guineas Day - 14/3/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/3/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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