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5/6/2010 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 15th. May, 2010.

On this day the $400,000 Group 1 Weight for Age BTC Cup was run over 1200 metres at Doomben.

Randwick: Track Good

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Stand To Gain
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Beijing Boy
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Chris Waller

R5 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 81. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Danza Doll
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: David Payne

Morphettville: Track Good

R3 $50,000 open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Outlandish Lad
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tips to win money wagering on horse racing
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Track and Distance Specialists' horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 15/5/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/5/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/5/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/5/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 15/5/2010
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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