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5/6/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held at Caulfield horse racing track on Saturday, 22nd. May, 2010.

Caulfield
Track: Good.
Rail: Out 12 metres.
Penetrometer: 5.05

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Paparazzi Dreamer
Days since last start: First race start
Distance last start: ---
Result last start: ---
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Linda Meech
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R2 $70,000 3YO and UP. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Avienus
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1410
Result last start: 2-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Kane Bradley
Trainer: Mark Webb

R3 $90,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: War Ends
Days since last start: 66
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-8
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Broken
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Darren Weir

R5 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 14
Equal Favourite: Fieldmaster
Days since last start: 5
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Brereton
Trainer: Patrick Payne
Equal Favourite: Garozzo
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Luke Currie
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 13
Equal Favourite: Ishant
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-14
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Equal Favourite: Light Vision
Days since last start: 16
Distance last start: 2350
Result last start: 3-11
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jack Hill
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Veewap
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 2-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Peter Mertens
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R8 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Two Hills
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1410
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Allen Browell

Comments:
Punters backing favourites had a small winning day at top fluctuation bookmaker odds, with three of the 10 favourites winning. Two of the favourites finished second seven days and 14 days earlier, while punters were on the money with Paparazzi Dreamer which won at its first race start. In R3 War Ends had a freshen up of 66 days and was unplaced. While in R6 Ishant dropped back in distance from 2350 metres to 2000 metres and in R8 Two Hills also dropped back in distance from 1410 metres to 1200 metres and finished second.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tips to win money wagering on horse racing
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Track and Distance Specialists' horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 15/5/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/5/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/5/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/5/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 15/5/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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