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5/6/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 15th. May, 2010 at the Flemington horse racing track.

Flemington
Track: Dead.
Rail: True Position.
Penetrometer: 4.83

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Lucky Doris
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: John McArdle

R2 $75,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Johanski
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 4-9
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R3 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Precious Lorraine
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: David Hayes

R4 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Believe 'N Achieve
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1529
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R5 $125,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Catapulted
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-17
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R6 $200,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Ajhar
Days since last start: 20
Distance last start: 2600
Result last start: 1-13
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R7 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 14
Equal Favourite: Veewap
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Tony Vasil
Equal Favourite: Offenders
Days since last start: 147
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 12-13
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R8 $70,000 Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Module
Days since last start: 13
Distance last start: 1500
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a losing meeting with only two winners in R3 and R5 from the nine favourites. The winners, Precious Lorraine in R3 was a last start winner 13 days earlier while Catapulted in R5 had finished second in the Group 1 Goodwood Handicap 13 days earlier. Johanski in R2 was unplaced at its previous start. It was again unplaced. In R8 Module jumped in distance from 1500 metres instead of 1600 to 1800 metres and ran second as a short priced $2.30 favourite. While in R7 yet another horse sent out as a favourite after a long spell, this time 147 days, failed to win, when Offenders finished third.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tips to win money wagering on horse racing
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Track and Distance Specialists' horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 29/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 22/5/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 15/5/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/5/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/5/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/5/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 15/5/2010
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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