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6/6/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 30th. May, 2009. On this day the $400,000 3YO Fillies Group 1 Queensland Oaks was held at Eagle Farm.

Rosehill: Track Heavy

R1 $70,000 3YO. Rst84. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Emoire Place
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: David Payne
Winner: Border Rebel
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.40
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: Sue Grills

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rst88. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Talaana
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Peter Wells
Trainer: Gary Portelli
Winner: Yaqubi
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.30
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Bart Cummings


Flemington: Track Good

R4 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Inkster
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $4.20
Jockey: Dale Smith
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Elmore
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
The above prices were reduced as due to a scratching at the barrier of the $4.00 favourite, Determination, there was a win bet deduction of 23 cents in the dollar from the face value of the ticket.
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Luke Oliver


Morphettville: Track Dead

R2 $30,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Catsonsong
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: The Fugitive
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

R4 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Just Flipper
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Scott Bailey
Trainer: Brian Mueller
Winner: Magical Pearl
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Glen Davis
Trainer: Dennis O'Leary

This edition of Punt to Win:
Brisbane Winter Carnival horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 30/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 23/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 16/5/2009
The Duck Egg horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Queensland Oaks Day - 30/5/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/5/2009 & 16/5/2009.
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/5/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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