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6/6/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Caulfield, Saturday, 23rd. May, 2009.
Caulfield
Track: Good
Rail: Out 10 metres
Penetrometer: 4.97
R1 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Makeadreamcometrue
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Ocean Dream
Days since last start: 12
Distance last start: 800
Result last start: 1-8 (Cranbourne Barrier Trial)
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
R3 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Bashful Girl
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith
R4 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: La Goulue
Days since last start: 161
Distance last start: 1300
Result last start: 15-17
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
R5 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Driffield Gold
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.05
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
R6 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Shocking
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Tetsu Gama
Days since last start: 84
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-10
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
R8 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Thorn Lake
Days since last start: 20
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 10th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths
Comments:
Five of the eight favourites won! Three of them were last start winners with their previous starts being seven to 10 days earlier. In R4 Peter G. Moody managed an excellent feat in getting La Goulue to win first up after a spell of 161 days. As we have seen in past updates, not many favourites have been successful first up after a spell of 100 days or longer.
In R2 the unraced 2YO, Ocean Dream, was sent out favourite after a barrier trial win and failed to perform under serious racing conditions. In R7 Tetsu Gama resumed after a spell of 84 days and missed out on a place.
Nicholas Hall rode four of the favourites, being successful twice.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Brisbane Winter Carnival horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 30/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 23/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 16/5/2009
The Duck Egg horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Queensland Oaks Day - 30/5/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/5/2009 & 16/5/2009.
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/5/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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