Horse racing and
sports betting.
 
 

Punt to Win

Pro-Punter
Horse racing forums
Swap tips and discuss betting systems and software

Qld, NT and Tasmanian punters, claim up to $502 deposit match!


Qld, NT and Tasmanian punters, claim up to a $250 bonus bet!


Join Betfair now!
Win at racing

 

 

6/6/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from Flemington, Saturday, 30th. May, 2009.

Flemington
Track: Dead 4 R1-R3, Good 3 R4-R8.
Rail: Out 3 metres
Penetrometer: 4.75

R1 $75,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Choilin
Days since last start: 194
Distance last start: 800
Result last start: 1-6 (Cheltenham Barrier Trial)
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Phillip Stokes

R2 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Glam Slam
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-14
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R3 $75,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Red Pixie
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1420
Result last start: 3-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R4 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Inkster
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 3-6
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dale Smith
Trainer: Mick Price

R5 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Lakonian
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-10
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Robbie Laing

R6 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Command Prince
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 6-10
Result this start: 9th.

Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Trainer: Tony Parker

R7 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Midnight Mustang
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 3rd
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Tony Noonan

R8 $75,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Count To Zero
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-6
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jarrod Fry
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths

Comments:
A horrible day for favourites' punters with not one favourite winning.

In R2 the favourite, Glam Slam, was unplaced at its previous start plus had a 35 days' break between runs. In R6 the favourite, Command Prince, was unplaced at its previous start plus had a 21 days' break between runs, dropping back in distance from 1600 metres to 1400 metres. It was unplaced again.

In R1 the 2YO favourite Choilin which failed to run a place had no race experience. Its barrier trial was 194 days before the race.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Brisbane Winter Carnival horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 30/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 23/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 16/5/2009
The Duck Egg horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Queensland Oaks Day - 30/5/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/5/2009 & 16/5/2009.
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/5/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


Best online bookmakers
Best online poker rooms

Copyright 1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

Home | Contact us | Special offers | Horse racing forum | Advertise here

 
  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.