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6/6/2009 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the horse racing favourites' results from the meeting held at Flemington horse racing track on Saturday, 16th. May, 2009.

Flemington
Track: Good
Rail: True Position.
Penetrometer: 4.66

R1 $75,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Wallinger
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1050
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R2 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Cats Whisker
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1420
Result last start: 4-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R3 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Take The Rap
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-10
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R4 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Driffield Gold
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

R5 $125,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Commanding Hope
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-12
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Chris Hyland

R6 $200,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: 20
Favourite: Hissing Sid
Days since last start: 9
Distance last start: 2350
Result last start: 1-15
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Wayne Hokai
Trainer: Bill & Symon Wilde

R7 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Costa In The Glen
Days since last start: 24
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-12
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Niall Phillips

R8 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Shocking
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

Comments:
Two of the four winning favourites won their previous starts which were two weeks earlier. One winning favourite ran second two weeks earlier, while in R2 Cats Whisker ran fourth, beaten 1.6 lengths seven days earlier. In R3 Take The Rap, which ran fourth at its previous start, unsuccessfully tried to jump in distance from 1200 metres to 1600 metres. Similarly in R6 Hissing Sid unsuccessfully tried to jump in distance from 2350 metres to 3200 metres. In R7 Costa In The Glen had a break of 24 days between 1400 metres runs. Too long a break? Dwayne Dunn won on $2.50 favourite Wallinger in R1 but had losing rides on favourites in R3 and R7.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Brisbane Winter Carnival horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 30/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 23/5/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 16/5/2009
The Duck Egg horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Queensland Oaks Day - 30/5/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/5/2009 & 16/5/2009.
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/5/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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