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6/8/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, July 30.

Cheltenham: Track Slow

R3 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Clear View
Result: sixth
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.20
Jockey: Ben Hoppo
Trainer: Byron Cozamanis
Winner: Regal Alliance
Starting price: $15.00
Top fluctuation: $15.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $28.80
Jockey: Joe Bowditch
Trainer: Daniel Clarken

Here are the results from Saturday, July 23.

Warwick Farm: Track Good

R1 $55,000 3YO. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Mystery City
Result: first
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Here are the results from Saturday, July 16.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $60,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Oh Oklahoma
Result: first
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Zac Purton
Trainer: Tim Martin

Morphettville: Track Slow

R5 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Zip Zip Aray
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: David Jolly
Winner: Maduro
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.90
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

This edition of Punt to Win:
Know your jockeys and make money
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch - future winners
Betting plunges by trainers, owners and punters
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 30/7/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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