Punt to Win
Betting Plunges by Trainers, Owners and Punters
The general advice you get from the horse racing media is to "follow the money" when a horse is resuming from a spell. Like most things in racing, that just makes backing winners and making a profit far too easy. So of course it won't work.
At Rosehill last Saturday the Clarry Conners trained 5YO mare Palatial resumed from a spell of nearly six months. In the betting ring she was plunged from $12.00 to start at $7.00.
Despite having two trials leading into the 1200 metres race, Palatial didn't know she was expected to win. She finished tenth in the field of 12 runners.
In the Group 3 Weight for Age Missile Stakes, Spark Of Life resumed from a spell of three months and was sent out the firm $1.80 favourite. He had also won two trials coming into the race. But come raceday Spark Of Life finished a disappointing third.
Just like you need to know your jockeys, so you need to know your trainers. Some trainers' regularly have their horses plunged first up and regularly fail to win. Other trainers have an excellent strike rate when the money comes for a first up runner.
Then there are trainers whose first up runners will often win while there is no support for them in the betting ring, like John Hawkes.
You will find out which trainers put a jockey who won first up last time back on the horse when they aim for another first up win. You will know which trainers will place inexperienced apprentices on horses resuming that they do not expect to win.....
By keeping your own detailed stats, you will give yourself a much better chance than most punters of working out which trainers mean business with first up runners and whether or not the money needs to come for them.
This edition of Punt to Win:
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