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6/12/2002 edition

Form Analysis and Handicapping Tips

Continued from previous page

4. Shane Templeton wrote, "PRINCESS CLANG had plenty of weight and a wide barrier. All it did was provide better odds."

In our opinion weight increases slow down a horse. If not, then all races should be held under Weight for Age, not handicap conditions. The 58.5kg. combined with barrier 13 of 16 over the Eagle Farm 1200 is a long term treacherous betting combination when horses are at shortish odds.

There will be many more class horses lose under those conditions than win over the long term. That makes $3.80 poor value.

5. The eighth to Show A Heart in Group 1 company is not particularly relevant. Princess Clang carried a featherweight 48kg. compared to Show A Heart who carried 56kg.

6. Shane Templeton wrote that Princess Clang "...cruised home and paid $3.80. Pity we spotted it a shade too late."

It is interesting to note that anyone who was just checking SuperTab tote prices and not the bookmaker betting ring prices had no chance of spotting the $3.80 - the starting price which appeared later in the papers. They also had no chance of spotting the top odds of $4.20. But they would have seen the very short tote odds of $2.80. With a SuperTab tote dividend of $2.80 it also seems that plenty of tote punters did decide to back Princess Clang.

Any horse that wins easily at shortish odds, and starting price odds of $3.80 in a field of 16 is shortish odds, usually seems like luxury odds after the event. But that is deceptive. Because there are plenty of other horses with similar form and odds that go around and lose other races. After those races no punter says, "Now that was a good twelfth. How could I have possibly missed the $3.80?"

This edition of Punt to Win:
Learn from these betting comments
Betting favourites - some bookmaker and tote statistics
Form analysis and handicapping tips
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 29/11/2002
Punt to Win index


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