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9/4/2011 edition

What Horse Races Are Poor Betting Races?

Betting to win - which races?

Races held over distances of 1000 metres and 2000 metres and longer regularly produce upset results. It is important to be aware of this before you bet in these races. They need to be selected with great care.

The 1000 metres dashes are regularly filled with horses resuming from a spell primed for just that race. With two and three year olds there are often so many query form factors that decent analysis of the race is next to impossible. The bigger the field, the bigger the lottery. When you throw in track queries like which side of the straight is better at Flemington you are often best not even wasting your time looking at the race.

The middle distance and distance races tend to have many inconsistent gallopers. There are also horses that are looking for more distance in their preparation after earlier runs at shorter distances. These horses are gradually racing into form. That alone makes form assessment difficult. What key runs will you use for some of the horses when assessing their chances?

Barriers are also very important. An on pace horse with a wide barrier is often at a big disadvantage. Some racing publications tell you that because of the distance of the race barriers are not important. That is incorrect. There is nothing worse than being trapped three or four wide for 2000 metres or 3200 metres. Of course barriers are important in the Melbourne Cup.

A top jockey can often set the pace of the race and lead all the way on a bolter. Then again that same top jockey can be on an inconsistent animal that looks the best of a very ordinary field and that horse puts in a performance many lengths inferior to recent runs.

Here is a typical story from a very mediocre 2600 metres race run at Morphettville some years ago that we always remember. Professionals we know very, very rarely bet in these low standard Adelaide affairs. They throw up different winners every race.

Sure enough the race was an upset, won by six year old gelding, Starpro. At its previous start over 2000 metres Starpro was beaten by 10 lengths and started at $101. Starpro had raced 30 times for three placings and just one win. The $1.80 favourite in the race was The Rampager. It had won his previous start convincingly by over two lengths. Punters fooled themselves into thinking The Rampager would do it again. This time in The Rampager had eight runs for only one win. Its career record was just six placings and four wins from 31 starts. Yet with a record like that The Rampager was sent out $1.80 odds on favourite because it looked a "good thing" in the race! No thanks.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
What horse races are poor betting races?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Rosehill horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/4/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/3/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/3/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 19/3/2011
Punt to Win index


2010 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners over $10.00
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Ferocia 42.90 51.00 $81
Influential Miss 24.00 29.10 $51
Spectrolite 13.60 16.80 $32
Americain 10.90 14.00 $31
Tagus 10.90 13.00 $21


 

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