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9/4/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 26th. March, 2011.

On this day the $500,000 3YO Group 1 Rosehill Guineas was held at Rosehill and won by the New Zealand Derby winner, the John Bary trained colt, Jimmy Choux, ridden by Jonathan Riddell. Jimmy Choux firmed from $5.00 to start at $4.60 with the bookies and paid best tote odds of $5.00, though punters on SuperTab only got $3.80.

Caulfield: Track Dead.

R2 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Belle Chantecler
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Tariana
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.30
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price

Doomben: Track Good.

R1 $50,000 1MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lotseventy
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Kris Lees

This edition of Punt to Win:
What horse races are poor betting races?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Rosehill horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/4/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/3/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/3/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 19/3/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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