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9/4/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 19th. March, 2011.

On this day the $600,000 3YO & UP Fillies & Mares Group 1 TAD Kennedy Stakes (registered name) was held at Rosehill. It was won by the Mick Price trained 4YO mare, Aloha, ridden by Glen Boss. Aloha firmed from $7.00 to start at $6.00 with the bookies. Best tote odds was $6.20 on SuperTab.

Rosehill: TAD Kennedy Stakes Day (Registered names have been used.) Track R1 - R3 Dead, R4 - R8 Slow, R9 Heavy.

R1 $70,000 3YO. rating 73. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Flying Empress
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Winner: Battle Ready
Starting price: $41.00
Top fluctuation: $41.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $34.50
Jockey: Kathy O'Hara
Trainer: Gary Portelli

R2 $300,000 Todman Stakes. 2YO. Colts & Geldings. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Sepoy
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.18
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Smart Missile
Starting price: $21.00
Top fluctuation: $21.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $19.30
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Anthony Cummings

R3 $300,000 Reisling Stakes. 2YO. Fillies. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Satin Shoes
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Clarry Conners
Winner: Elite Falls
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: John O'Shea

R4 $175,000 Canterbury Stakes. 3YO & UP. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: More Joyous
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R5 $400,000 Rawson Stakes. 3YO & UP. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Maluckyday
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Winner: Zavite
Starting price: $101.00
Top fluctuation: $101.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $55.10
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Anthony Cummings


Caulfield: Track R1 - R2 Dead, R3 - R8 Good.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: City Of Song
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.35
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: John Moloney
Winner: Mosheen
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Leon Corstens

R2 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Stanzout
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Noel Callow
Trainer: Colin Davies
Winner: Galbraith
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Peter Healey


Eagle Farm: Track R1, R2 Slow, R3 - R5 Heavy, R6 - R8 abandoned.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Essington
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.50
Jockey: Mitchell Wood
Trainer: Darryl Hansen
Winner: Al Mazaya
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.00
Jockey: Damian Browne
Trainer: Michael Jacobs


Morphettville: Track Good.

R2 $32,000 Rating 94. Handicap.
Distance: 2250 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Magnificat
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Mick Huxtable

R3 $32,000 2YO. Rating 68. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Shanghai Bound
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.05
Top fluctuation: $2.05
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

This edition of Punt to Win:
What horse races are poor betting races?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Rosehill horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/4/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/3/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/3/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 19/3/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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