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9/4/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 2nd. April, 2011.

On this day $3,500,000 2YO Group 1 Golden Slipper and the $2,250,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Tancred Stakes (registered name) were held at Rosehill horse racing track. The Golden Slipper was easily won by the favourite, 2YO colt Sepoy, which was heavily backed on track from $3.40 to start at $2.80. Sepoy was ridden by Kerrin McEvoy and trained by Peter Snowden. The Tancred Stakes was won in a big upset by the 4YO gelding Cedarberg, which was steady in betting on track and started at $26.00. Cedarberg was ridden by Damien Oliver and trained by Pat Carey. The $3.10 favourite, 4YO gelding Descarado, finished sixth in the field of 11. Descarado was ridden by Nash Rawiller and trained by Gai Waterhouse.

Rosehill - Golden Slipper Day: Track Dead.

R3 $400,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Group 1. Weight for Age. Queen of the Turf Stakes.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: More Joyous
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.24
Top fluctuation: $1.24
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Moonee Valley: Track Dead.

R2 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Big Spirit
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Rick Hore-Lacy

R3 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Eclair Flyer
Result: 1st.

Late scratching: deduction 37 cents win.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Robert Smerdon

Oakbank: Track Dead.

R2 $30,000 Steeplechase. Handicap.
Distance: 3250 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: July
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Winner: Guara Grove Beast
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $21.20
Jockey: Gavin Bedggood
Trainer: John (MJ) O'Connor

This edition of Punt to Win:
What horse races are poor betting races?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Rosehill horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/4/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/3/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/3/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 19/3/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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