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9/12/2006 edition

"This Horse Can't Lose"

Imagine a horse being sent around as a $3.00 favourite in a field of 15 and after the horse's run you hear the race caller say:

"The favourite had every possible hope. I couldn't find a semblance of an excuse. It had the one out, one back spot, loomed up and wasn't disgraced by any manner of means. It battled on to finish fourth, not very far from the winner, but it was never going to win either."

Now imagine a race tipping panel member saying earlier in the day about the same horse:

"I can't see one horse in this race that can beat it. I think it's a moral."

1. Clearly the bookmakers disagreed with the tipster and were correct. That's why they offered $3.00 about the horse that "couldn't lose".

2. Not just one, but three other horses beat it in the race.

3. How is it possible to give one horse a 100% chance of winning the race and the rest of the field 0% chance of winning?

As punters, surely we should not be given such statistically unsound comments?

When you read or hear media tipsters telling you a horse "cannot possibly lose, there's nothing in the race that can beat it, or only bad luck can beat it," it's probably best to be generous and say it's an exaggeration.

They probably mean the horse has a top winning chance. Let's hope so.

As an exercise it pays to carefully note what media tipsters say about how a race is going to be run before a race and what they say about individual horses. It often sounds very intelligent and informed. There is often no lacking of confidence from the media tipsters.

Then see what actually happened in the race. That usually throws a completely different slant on those earlier comments like "Nothing can possibly beat this horse," or "I expect a lack of speed in this race," etc..

This edition of Punt to Win:
"This horse can't lose."
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Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick & Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 2/12/2006
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Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


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