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9/12/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 2nd. December.

Randwick Kensington Inner Track: Track Good

R1 $55,000 3YO and upward. Rst. 93. Handicap.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: De Rigeuer
Result: third
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Fred Powell
Winner: Sir Edmund
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $13.20
Jockey: Grant Buckley
Trainer: Garry Frazer

R2 $55,000 3YO. Class 4. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Hot 'N' Ready
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Steve Englebrecht
Winner: Super Smudge
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R4 $55,000 3YO and upward. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Regal Express
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.30
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Neville Voigt
Winner: Geigeron
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Steve Hodge


Moonee Valley: Track Good

R2 $45,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Kitz Lane
Result: third
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.90
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Deloraine
Starting price: $8.50
Top fluctuation: $8.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.00
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Anthony Cummings

R3 $45,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Hubcat
Result: first

Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Peter G Moody


Cheltenham: Track Good

R2 $20,000 3YO Fillies. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1310 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: St Trinians
Result: first

Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Damien Robinson
Trainer: Phillip Stokes

R3 $20,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1310 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Exclusive Reign
Result: fifth
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Sparkling Now
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $12.50
Jockey: Damien Robinson
Trainer: Darryl Hewitt

This edition of Punt to Win:
"This horse can't lose."
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick & Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 2/12/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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