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11/6/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

Plus Group 1 Horse Racing Results

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the Group 1 horse racing result from Saturday, 4th. June, 2011.

The $400,000 Group 1 3YO Fillies Queensland Oaks was run over 2400 metres at Eagle Farm. The comfortable winner by 2.5 lengths was the $3.90 favourite, Scarlett Lady, trained by Graeme & Debbie Rogerson and ridden by James McDonald. This was Scarlett Lady's sixth consecutive win this campaign.

Here are the results of how punters betting favourites in small fields did on Saturday, 4th. June, 2011.

Sandown Lakeside: Track Slow.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Le Societe
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R4 $100,000 The Australian Hurdle. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 3400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Our Aristocrat
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Eric Musgrove


Eagle Farm: Track Dead.

R2 $250,000 Eagle Farm Cup. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Glass Harmonium
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.25
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Lisa Cropp
Trainer: Michael Moroney


Morphettville: Track Dead.

R1 $32,000 2YO. Fillies. Rating 68. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Florets
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R2 $32,000 Rating 68. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Perfect Hostess
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Jim Conlan
Winner: Periduki
Starting price: $26.00
Top fluctuation: $26.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $27.90
Jockey: Scott Westover
Trainer: Mick Whittle

R4 $32,000 Rating 68. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Ocsmepop
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Shayne Cahill
Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell
Winner: Nevzlin
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: John P. Thompson

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting tips - wagering on maiden & 1000 metres races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Big Odds Winners Lightly Raced horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 4/6/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 28/5/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 21/5/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 21/5/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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