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21/5/2011 edition

The Truth:
Why All Horses Often Ease in the Bookmaker Betting

Let's have a look at some "information from the track" punters have regularly received for years from the racing media. Consider a city meeting. The second race of the day is being held. It is a 2YO Open over 1000 metres. The track is also very heavy track.

It will be no surprise if the "information from the track" given to you by the racing media tipster is that all horses have been a little bit easy as "punters are trying to sum up the track."

If you check the bookmaker odds you will see that is correct. Sure - all the horses have eased. But did that really have anything to do with punters trying to work out what the track was going to do?

When you look a little further it will be no surprise to see that the opening market was 145% - or even higher. Now it's a simple mathematical fact that it's pretty hard to get betting value in a market like that.

To a put a market of 145% into perspective consider roulette in an Australian casino where there is one zero.

With a market of 145%:

Instead of being paid even money ($2.00) for correctly selecting a red or black number you are only paid $1.40.

Instead of being paid $3.00 for correctly selecting a number in the group 13 to 24 you are only paid $2.10.

Instead of being paid $36.00 for correctly selecting one number you are only paid $24.00.

Now you see what a horse racing betting market of 145% is.
Most likely any bet is a long term losing bet.

It's a pity the racing media don't tell you that.

That will also explain why horses ease in the betting. It is simply that none of them offered any value to tempt any worthwhile betting money from the largeer punters who move the market.

Heavy tracks - be wary

You are asking for trouble regularly taking very short odds about horses on Heavy tracks, particularly when they are two year olds resuming from a spell.

For example, a two year old could resume from a spell of five months at the short odds of $2.00 on a very heavy track.

It might have a convincing win on a Slow track. But that does not mean the horse will handle a Heavy track, particularly if the track is very Heavy.

It will be no surprise to see that two year old get bogged down and be beaten by 20 lengths. It's happened plenty of times in the past.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
The truth: Why the betting odds of all horses often ease
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey Change horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 14/5/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/5/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 30/4/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 30/4/2011
Punt to Win index

2010 Melbourne Cup Day
Winners over $10.00
Best Bookmaker Win Odds
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Ferocia 42.90 51.00 $81
Influential Miss 24.00 29.10 $51
Spectrolite 13.60 16.80 $32
Americain 10.90 14.00 $31
Tagus 10.90 13.00 $21


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