Punt to Win
Let's have a look at some "information from the track" punters have regularly received for years from the racing media. Consider a city meeting. The second race of the day is being held. It is a 2YO Open over 1000 metres. The track is also very heavy track.
It will be no surprise if the "information from the track" given to you by the racing media tipster is that all horses have been a little bit easy as "punters are trying to sum up the track."
If you check the bookmaker odds you will see that is correct. Sure - all the horses have eased. But did that really have anything to do with punters trying to work out what the track was going to do?
When you look a little further it will be no surprise to see that the opening market was 145% - or even higher. Now it's a simple mathematical fact that it's pretty hard to get betting value in a market like that.
To a put a market of 145% into perspective consider roulette in an Australian casino where there is one zero.
Instead of being paid even money ($2.00) for correctly selecting a red or black number you are only paid $1.40.
Instead of being paid $3.00 for correctly selecting a number in the group 13 to 24 you are only paid $2.10.
Instead of being paid $36.00 for correctly selecting one number you are only paid $24.00.
Now you see what a horse racing betting market of 145% is.
It's a pity the racing media don't tell you that.
That will also explain why horses ease in the betting. It is simply that none of them offered any value to tempt any worthwhile betting money from the largeer punters who move the market.
Heavy tracks - be wary
You are asking for trouble regularly taking very short odds about horses on Heavy tracks, particularly when they are two year olds resuming from a spell.
For example, a two year old could resume from a spell of five months at the short odds of $2.00 on a very heavy track.
It might have a convincing win on a Slow track. But that does not mean the horse will handle a Heavy track, particularly if the track is very Heavy.
It will be no surprise to see that two year old get bogged down and be beaten by 20 lengths. It's happened plenty of times in the past.
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This edition of Punt to Win:
2010 Melbourne Cup Day
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