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21/5/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

Plus Group 1 Horse Racing Results

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the Group 1 horse racing result from Saturday, 14th. May, 2011.

The $400,000 Group 1 Weight for Age BTC Cup was run over 1200 metres at Doomben. The comfortable winner by two lengths was Australia's champion 4YO mare Black Caviar, trained by Peter G. Moody and ridden by Luke Nolen. Black Caviar started at the very short odds of $1.14. That was Black Caviar's thirteenth win from just 13 race starts!! A 100% winning strike rate! 5YO gelding and second favourite, Hay List, who finished second, beat the next horse, Buffering, by 4 3/4 lengths in this field of eight, and would be considered a champion, but for consistently running into Black Caviar. Hay List now has 14 wins and 4 seconds from 20 race starts.

Here are the results of how punters betting favourites in small fields did on Saturday, 14th. May, 2011.

Caulfield: Track Heavy.

R1 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Volando
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Linda Meech
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R4 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Yallingup
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Hawks Bay
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Andrew Stead
Trainer: Neil Dyer

R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Amaethon
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Damian Lane
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra
Winner: Shadowfax
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

This edition of Punt to Win:
The truth: Why the betting odds of all horses often ease
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey Change horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 14/5/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/5/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 30/4/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 30/4/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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