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21/5/2011 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Scone - 14/5/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Tullamore
60kg.
4
2200
$2.40fav.
1/11
Lotseventy
59.5kg.
11
1100
$11.00
3/15
Solar Charged
61kg.
15
1100
$3.10fav.
15/16
Caulfield - 14/5/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Jungle Ruler
59kg.
1
1400
$8.50
6/7
Canterbury - 7/5/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Legsman
59kg.
2
1900
$2.35fav.
1/9
Vision And Power
59kg.
2
1900
$9.50
3/9
Flemington - 7/5/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Capecover
59kg.
5
2800
$10.00
8/12
Caulfield - 30/4/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Annlea
59kg.
1
1400
$7.50
1/8
Barangaroo
59kg.
8
1400
$6.00
6/8
Randwick - 23/4/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Swift Alliance
61kg.
6
1200
$4.40equalfav.
9/10
Eagle Farm - 23/4/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Border Rebel
60kg.
1
1200
$3.80fav.
1/9
Scenic Shot
61kg.
7
1600
$6.00
1/11
Randwick - 16/4/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hawk Island
61kg.
1
2000
$3.70fav.
1/8
Monton
59kg.
6
1400
$9.50
10/12
Oakbank - 23/4/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lock It In Eddie
59kg.
5
1400
$3.30fav.
9/9
Exalted Brother
59kg.
13
1400
$3.50fav.
1/13
Sacred Snaadee
60kg.
4
1400
$6.00
2/12
Morphettville - 16/4/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Catapulted
59kg.
10
1100
$2.70fav.
10/11
Randwick - 9/4/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Herculian Prince
59.5kg.
14
1600
$8.50
13/14
Caulfield - 9/4/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Above Average
59kg.
4
2406
$3.00
3/8
Cuban Sunday
59kg.
8
2406
$7.50
3/12
Doomben - 9/4/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Crossthestart
60kg.
13
1350
$8.00
13/13
Our Lukas
60kg.
8
1350
$9.00
6/13
Rosehill - 2/4/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Swift Alliance
60kg.
1
1100
$3.80fav.
1/11
Moonee Valley - 2/4/2011
Horse
Weight
Barrier
Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lone Rock
59kg.
3
1000
$7.50
2/5
Tampiko
60kg.
11
1000
$3.30fav.
6/12
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
The truth: Why the betting odds of all horses often ease
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey Change horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 14/5/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/5/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 30/4/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 30/4/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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