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21/5/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 7th. May, 2011.

Canterbury: Track Slow R1, Dead R2-R8.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Manawui
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Ron Leemon

R4 $70,000 3YO. Rating 75. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Liechtenstein
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Trainer: Ron Quinton
Winner: Unanimously
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Taylor Lovelock-Wiggins
Trainer: Matthew Dale

Flemington: Track Dead.

R1 $75,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Deliver The Dream
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Russian Bond
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.70
Jockey: Garry Murphy
Trainer: Gary Lamb

This edition of Punt to Win:
The truth: Why the betting odds of all horses often ease
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Winning Jockey Change horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 14/5/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/5/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 30/4/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 30/4/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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