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11/6/2011 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

Plus Group 1 Horse Racing Results

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the Group 1 horse racing result from Saturday, 28th. May, 2011.

The $650,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Doomben 10,000 was run over 1350 metres at Doomben. The winner by a short head in this small field of seven race horses was the 5YO mare Beaded, trained by Peter Snowden and ridden by CoreyBrown. This was Beaded's tenth win from20 starts - a great winning strike rate of 50%. Beaded was steady in the bookmaker betting ring and started at $3.20. The $3.10 favourite Love Conquers All finished second. Love Conquers All was trained by Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes and ridden by Chris Munce.

Here are the results from Saturday, 28th. May, 2011.

Randwick: Track Heavy.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Lady Be Great
Result: 7th.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Adam Hyeronimus
Trainer: Jason Coyle
Winner: Star Mystery
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: Tim Clark
Trainer: Allan Denham

Doomben: Track Dead.

R7 $650,000 Doomben 10,000. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Love Conquers All
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Winner: Beaded
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Peter Snowden

Morphettville: Track Dead.

R3 $32,000 Rating 86. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Bagman
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting tips - wagering on maiden & 1000 metres races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Big Odds Winners Lightly Raced horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 4/6/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 28/5/2011
Betting favourites in small fields plus Group 1 horse racing results: 21/5/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 21/5/2011
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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