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12/10/2013 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 5th. October, 2013.

Randwick: Epsom Handicap Day
Track Dead.

R3 $125,000 3YO & UP. Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Masked Marvel
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Winner: Honorius
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: James McDonald
Trainer: David Payne

R4 $400,000 Flight Stakes. 3YO. Fillies. Group 1. Set weights.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Guelph
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden


Doomben: Track Good.

R3 $75,000 Fillies & Mares. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Anna Lizzie
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Trainer: Craig Tyrrell
Winner: Pickabee
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Ryan Wiggins
Trainer: Caitlin Lavin

R4 $45,000 Rating 90. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Regular
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Janette K. Johnson
Trainer: Bryan Guy
Winner: Falino
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Geoffrey Goold
Trainer: Darren Bell

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to make trifecta money betting odds on favourites and good things
The Free Track, Distance and First Up horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 5/10/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: 29/9/2013 & 27/9/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: 21/9/2013
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/10/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 28/9/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/9/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 21/9/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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